New Jersey, Virginia and NY-23

All we can say for sure about these races is that, if Democrats do well, the mainstream media will declare the vote a referendum of affirmation for the President and his policies.   If Republicans do well, the media will say the outcomes were determined by local factors, and it's no reflection on the President.

With some polls suggesting Republicans have reason to be hopeful about all three races, this morning there's already anticipatory punditry in the national press to the effect that it's not a referendum on the Obama Administration or its policies.

No matter what the outcome of NY-23, national media will get it as wrong on the implications for the Republican Party as they have already.

The reality is that, whatever the outcome, it's more complex than referendum on the President vs. non-referendum.   It's a combination of dynamics both national and local.   We'll comment tomorrow on the results in these races.