Morelle's Next

We can defeat Joe Morelle this year.

And nobody knows it better than Joe Morelle.

The Assemblyman was already worried big-time after his party's humiliation in last November's election.   Now, on the same day, came the Republican earthquake in Massachusetts and Assemblywoman Susan John calling it quits.

1. An Orthodox Albany Democrat
2. His District Awakens
3. Motivated Republicans
4. Damaged Relations with Tom Cook
5. Discontent in His Own Party

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1. An Orthodox Albany Democrat

A very bad thing to be this year.   And for his entire career in Albany, Joe Morelle's been joined at the hip to Speaker Sheldon Silver.  One of the most secure, entrenched members of Albany's Democratic Establishment, Morelle has been one of Silver's most loyal footsoldiers.   Morelle even sided with Silver when upstate and suburban Democrats, including David Koon, tried to take him out some years back.   Shelly first.   Upstate and district second.

Worried even before last November's Democratic debacle in Monroe County and, according to insiders, scared for his political life since, Morelle's been trying, lamely, to distance himself from his patron and field commander, Silver.   Morelle voted against last year's budget, for instance, with its massive new taxes and spending.  Something Little Joe never could have done without Shelly's permission.   He can posture, but he can't cut the cord.

For all the noise Morelle makes about jobs, taxes and the economy, he's an Orthodox Albany Democrat.   Never, ever going against the interests of public-employee unions or the core policy defects (loved by his party) that make New York the second-highest taxed place in the country and have sent its residents into mass exodus, to the sane states.

2. His District Awakens

Democrats got thumped last fall in Morelle's home base, Irondequoit.   Republicans didn't make a major effort there, and Morelle campaigned for and appeared in endorsement pieces for the Democratic Town Supervisor and Town Board members.   They lost.   Maybe Morelle's endorsement is part of the reason why.   Bottom line is that voters in Morelle's home turf are ready to turn the Democrats out.   And did.

3. Motivated Republicans

Republicans gave Morelle a pass in 2008, when fellow Assemblyman Bill Reilich became County GOP Chair, as a gesture of comity and cooperation.

Ever the class act, Morelle returned the compliment by coming hammer and tongs after Reilich in the 2008 campaign, in an especially nasty effort.   This year Republicans will repay the favor, with the wind at their back from the anti-Albany mood, the national anti-Democratic trend, the County Democratic meltdown last November, and the ouster of the Democratic Town government in Irondequoit.   As ye sow, so shall ye reap, Joe.

4. Damaged Relations with Tom Cook

As Democratic County Chair, Morelle had forged a working political relationship with County Conservative Chairman Tom Cook.   Cook is a man of high ethical sense, who honors the truth, and demands it.

Questioned in 2008 about the Democrats' vicious campaign against Assemblyman and County Republican Chair Reilich, Morelle told Cook he couldn't do anything about it.   It was all Shelly's doing, Morelle dissembled.   Speaker Silver was directing the campaign.   Then Cook found out, from Albany insiders in both parties, about Morelle brazenly boasting around Albany that he was going to beat Reilich and "take the Chairman out."

No more free pass for Morelle from the Conservatives.

5. Discontent in His Own Party

Local Democrats blame Morelle for their catastrophic loss in 2009.   A loss, say Dem insiders, that never should have happened, but did, because Morelle was asleep at the wheel.

Morelle lost what looked like a Democratic lock on taking over the County Legislature, thereby losing not only the legislature, but control of redistricting for the next 10 years.   He lost the Democratic line for a County Legislative seat, where his own candidate went down in the Democratic Primary -- to her Republican opponent.   He lost Supreme Court, County Court, Sheriff, Mendon and his home base of Irondequoit.   He didn't win for his party a single seriously contested race.

Local Dems are especially upset over Morelle's clumsy negative ad against Republican County Court candidate John DiMarco.   They blame it for turning the tide and letting DiMarco unseat incumbent Democratic Judge Bryan McCarthy.   Something almost unheard of, to defeat an incumbent judge.   Democrats complain they might have won something if Morelle had spent as much time on the campaign as he spends at 2Vine.

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Little Joe knows all of the above.   We saw him at the popular Mayor's side at the recent press conference on control of City schools.   Look for Morelle to work hard to link himself ever more closely with the popular Duffy, while scrambling to conceal the umbilical cord back to Sheldon Silver.   Look for him to get Shelly's permission, once more, to vote against the State budget.

Susan John saw the writing on the wall from last November, and the political trends.   She wisely chose to step down rather than risk likely defeat.   Like John, Morelle also has an Assembly district with a big suburban component.   A suburb that just turned out the Democrats.

Joe Morelle's on the run.

Let's nail him.