Monday, October 26, 2009

Momentum for Hoffman in CD-23?

A poll released today shows Hoffman (C) in the lead with 31.3%, Owens (D) at 27.0% and Scatterbrain (R) or whatever her name is at 19.7%.

We didn't know the Club for Growth did polling.


Rottenchester said...

That poll has a tiny sample, so the 5.66% MoE is huge - it means that Owens and Hoffman are essentially tied.

I never trust polls from interested parties unless they publish crosstabs, sampling method and questions. Did the Club for Growth do that?

That all said, NY-23 is a nice change for a Democrat. I usually sit by and watch my party tear itself apart from the inside. Seeing Republicans do the same thing makes a nice change of pace.

Anonymous said...

Hi Philbrick,
This is my first post on mustard street. I checked out Doug Hoffman's website after he was endorsed by Sarah Palin. Doug appears to be a true conservative and iI sent him $25.
This would be a first and a new beginning if we can get a Conservative elected over a liberal GOP. Please, pass the word on to your followers to read Hoffman's POV on the issues and donate to a worthy cause.
A Monroe County conservative

Philbrick said...

Thanks, Rottenchester. Didn't know about the tiny sample, but share your view about interested parties doing polls. It's why we ended the headline with a question mark. And what little I know about CFG, I've never before heard of them doing polling.

We here don't mind Republicans tearing themselves apart in an election like this. Scozzafava's a classic Albany Republican hack, like Tedisco, who lost the special congressional election in Republican district 20 earlier this year.

Lucy's dad wonders whether it will be like the 1970 Senate race, where apparently liberal Democrat Ottinger and liberal Republican Goodell split the center-left vote, allowing Conservative James Buckley to walk through the open door to victory. Before our time!

Philbrick said...

Thanks, Anonymous. We'll be keeping an eye on this race. As you suggest, we encourage readers to visit Doug Hoffman's website.

Rottenchester said...

My take is that special elections bring out partisans, and the Republicans will split between Scozzafava and Hoffman, so Owens will have a chance at a win in a district that should be pretty safe for Republicans.

Another reason to doubt a Hoffman win is that he's fumbling the bread-and-butter issues: