Wednesday, February 27, 2008

The Governor's Moment of Opportunity

Understand the political landscape in the State of New York in consequence of Democrats picking up a State Senate seat yesterday.

If your attitude is that Democrats now have an excellent prospect of taking the Senate in this Fall's election, you don't get it.   It's far more useful to the student and analyst of New York politics to grasp the essential reality:  

Democrats have, in fact, won the Senate.   They formally take office next January 1, at the latest.
This is so because it's impossible to imagine circumstances in which Republican Senator Serph Maltese gets re-elected down in Queens.   And prospects of yesterday's winner being defeated in November are too negligible to be regarded seriously.   Even if Democrats pick up no seats other than Maltese's, it means a tied Senate -- with the Democratic Lt. Governor casting the tie-breaking vote.

The point of this observation is not to rub it in to Republicans, but to make clear that the key political dynamic we discussed yesterday -- Governor Spitzer's having a friendly Democratic Senate to work with, to win compromises from the Dear Leader Sheldon Silver -- is in motion as of now.

The moment of opportunity has arrived.

1 comment:

Exile said...

Nice post. I agree with your analysis completely.

It amazes me that so many people continue to see NYS politics in terms of Republican versus Democrat when anyone with any sense knows it's Spitzer versus Bruno/Silver.

You "get it". Would that the folks at the D&C did too.