Wednesday, February 15, 2012

The Alesi Enigma

Will there be a primary challenger to State Senator Jim Alesi?   So far, it's not sounding like it.

We think it likely that Senate Republican leaders will be leaning hard on the Monroe County Republican organization to give Alesi a pass, notwithstanding Alesi's lawsuit fiasco last year.   Their thinking has to be:   with a majority this slim, we have to protect every seat.   So Alesi's purchase of protection and support from Governor Cuomo, with his vote on the gay marriage bill, may have been superfluous.

Other questions remain, though.   Will local Republican committees pass petitions for Alesi?   Absent pressure from County GOP headquarters, many won't.   If so, it's not a problem for Alesi, who can hire petition-carriers to do the job the GOP grassroots won't do.

But can't any plausible Democratic candidate beat Alesi, after the damage the Senator did to himself in the lawsuit mess?

We think that's the big question.   And maybe that's where the deal he made with the Governor over gay marriage will make the difference.   If there's no Democratic opponent to Alesi, or one who's out on his or her own, without the support from Albany we'd expect for a legitimate Democratic challenge (such as Mary Wilmot's in 2010), we'll know that that was the deal made the day Alesi holed up with the Governor before becoming the first Republican senator to support the same-sex marriage bill.


Anonymous said...

Even pushing aside the lawsuite issue(where he showed a severe lack
of judgment)and his "behind closed doors" meeting with Cuomo over the gay marriage law,Alesi has been in office too damn long,and has very little(for his district)to show in
any real accomplishments over the years.I believe the voters are strongly looking for an alternative to Alesi.If he runs un-opposed,you may see the smallest number of voters ever to be bothered to pull the levor for an incumbent.He deserves to be "dead meat"politically.All the $$ he has pocketed from out of state supporters(and hizzoner Bloomberg)won't make a difference.The backlash against life-long in office politicos is a comming and Alesi is the new poster boy for just such an honor.

Anonymous said...

I was polled last week on Sean Hanna vs. Jim Alesi. I really doubt that anybody is going to make any announcement until district lines are finalized. Until they are, they can change in a heartbeat.

Anonymous said...

With all due respect, I believe you may be wrong on this one, which shocks me. I know of a half-dozen established Republicans ready to give it a go. Funding has been secured on a level almost as much as Mr. Alesi has gotten from his "new friends," as he likes to call them. As a matter of fact, Mr. Alesi knows the challange is coming, just ask him. All that has to happen, is for the districts to be finalized.

I do not foresee the incumbent running as a Republican for his own seat. I'll wager you an old unsafe ladder on that one.

repoman said...

I have to agree with anonymus 11:01and wonder if Sen. Alesi will have the votes in the relevant committees to be the endorsed GOP candidate.

Anonymous said...

There are plenty of permutations of how this could play out. Will Alesi run as a GOP or a Democrat? Will Vinnie Esposito finally launch his career beyond the county leg with fuel provided by Morelle and Duffy? Will Hanna, Nojay, Barker, or whoever run, even if that means going without support from Skelos and the "official" Republican party? Will the town committees carry Alesi's petitions, or will he have to hire rent-a-committee members? Will Reilich, responding to the State GOP, twist arms locally to support Alesi, or will he let it play out?

The only certainty in this race is that the D&C will shill for Alesi as their hero for the gay marriage vote. The problem is this race won't be about gay marriage but his lawsuit and the general nothingness of his entire time in Albany.

Anonymous said...

I would also concur with Anonymous 11:01, but suggest that Philbrick was merely chumming for conversation as there has been a lull in this blog. As for Sean, he has picked up a trait of being argumentatve and a contrarian when discussing issues with constituents and donors. Besides the proposed district lines, this will be his ultimate undoing.